Is a 2012 shake-up possible for frosh TN Repubs?
Our friends over at TN Ticket pointed this story out to me this morning:
Just when freshman House Republicans have finally learned their way to the Cannon Caucus Room, how to vote on a motion to proceed and which commissary serves the best tuna sandwiches, someone back home — worse, someone from their own party — wants to take it all away.
“I am taking a serious look,” said Weston Wamp, who is pondering a primary challenge to Representative Chuck Fleischmann, in his first term from Tennessee. Mr. Wamp said he was inspired by his father, Zach, who served in the House for many years. “My experience through my dad was seeing the very best of what public service can mean.”
It is miles to go before the 2012 Congressional races begin in earnest, but already some of the 87 freshmen who helped the Republicans win back the House last year are bracing for a challenge from within the party. At least half a dozen potential primary challengers to freshmen are considering a run, and there is heated chatter about more.
In some ways, the freshmen are responsible for their own predicament. Many won their seats after successfully challenging establishment Republicans in primaries, proving that a combination of gumption and the right political climate could overcome the advantages of incumbency.
Now, to some of the impatient and ideological voters who sent them to Washington to change things, the new House members may be seen as the establishment, and they face the disconcerting prospect of immediately defending themselves in the political marketplace.
This story comes just days after speculation that State Senator Bill Ketron might find himself in Tennessee’s 4th Congressional District after redistricting, just in time to challenge Freshman Scott DesJarlais.
Last election, Tennessee flipped from 5-4 Democrat control of the Congressional delegation to 7-2 Republican control. Republicans picked up 3 seats and replaced a retiring Republican with a Freshman Republican.
It looks now like two of those Freshman will be defending themselves in a Republican primary: Scott DesJarlais (who may be challenged by Ketron) and Chuck Fleischmann (who may face a primary challenge from former Congressman Zach Wamp’s son). While the circumstances are different for both districts, the outcomes may be similar.
No doubt both Ketron and little Wamp will be able to raise money to challenge incumbent Congressmen. DesJarlais has been low key, from what I can tell. And Fleischmann fought an extremely bloody primary battle against the former TNGOP Chair. Folks on the ground would be more able to describe the situation in Chattanooga as it relates to the mood of Republican primary voters.
The most difficult election for Members of Congress is oftentimes the first re-election opportunity. While DesJarlais and Fleischmann’s potential challengers have different strengths and weaknesses, I think it’ll be a challenge for both of them.
Will newly-elected Congressmen Diane Black and Stephen Fincher escape a primary challenge?
DailyKos had this to say in their election digest a few days ago:
TN-04, TN-05: GOP state Sen. Bill Ketron says he could potentially primary frosh Rep. Scott DesJarlais — if Ketron’s home base of Rutherford County is drawn into DesJarlais’ 4th district. Sam Stockard of the Murfreesboro Daily News Journal thinks that this remap is likely to happen, and conveniently, Ketron sits on the redistricting committee. Another Republican freshman, Diane Black, also wants Rutherford (where her toughest 2010 primary opponents reside) out of her district, according to state Dems (though she’s publicly claimed otherwise), so Ketron could solve two problems at once. Ketron also admitted to wanting to split up Davidson County (home of Nashville), in an attempt to de-district Dem Rep. Jim Cooper. If we have to get the shaft in Tennessee redistricting, I’m not exactly going to cry if Cooper’s on the receiving end.
July 5, 2011 No Comments
RuCo may move to #TN04 in redistricting process
The Daily News Journal reports:
Rutherford County is on the verge of being drawn into a different congressional district, a move that could create a spirited Republican primary when the state Legislature approves reapportionment in 2012.
State Sen. Bill Ketron, chairman of the Legislature’s Republican Majority Caucus, said this week “there’s a real possibility” Rutherford County could be placed into the 4th Congressional District served by Republican Rep. Scott DesJarlais of South Pittsburg, removing it from its long-held spot in the 15-county 6th Congressional District.
Asked if he would run for Congress in a newly-drawn 4th District, Ketron, of Murfreesboro, said, “I haven’t ruled that out. But it’s all speculative right now because I don’t know how it’s going to pan out until January.”
There has been some chatter that Senator Bill Ketron might challenge newly-elected Congressman Scott DesJarlais in the Republican primary next year if Rutherford County is drawn into the Fourth Congressional District. Currently, Rutherford County is wholly in the Sixth Congressional District.
June 23, 2011 No Comments