Some good news this morning from TheIowaRepublican for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann:

Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann has surpassed former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in a recent Iowa poll that was conducted by TheIowaRepublican.com.  With Bachmann now leading in Iowa, Romney has fallen to second place, but he is still well ahead of third place finisher Tim Pawlenty, who has overtaken Herman Cain my a miniscule margin.

Bachmann received support from 25 percent of likely Iowa caucus goers in the poll, while Romney is backed by 21 percent.  The poll also shows signs of growth for former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who now stands in third place in statistical tie with Herman Cain at just under nine percent.  Ron Paul finished with six percent, Newt Gingrich with four percent, Rick Santorum with two percent, and Jon Huntsman rounded out the field with one percent.

Bachmann’s campaign has taken off like a rocket since participating and announcing her presidential intentions during the CNN debate in New Hampshire last month.  Here in Iowa, Bachmann has been playing up her Iowa roots.  She officially announced her candidacy in Waterloo, the town in which she was born and spent her formative years.  The night before she made her announcement, Bachmann’s campaign hosted a rally for 500 locals who came to welcome her home.

While Bachmann’s lead over Romney is just within the margin of error, the poll’s cross tabs show how much momentum her campaign has generated in Iowa.  Her favorability is ten points higher than Romney’s, who had the second highest number in that category.  Her unfavorable figure is 14 points lower than Romney’s, giving her a stellar plus 65 favorability margin.  Her numbers suggest that Bachmann has found a very effective way to appeal to caucus goers.

According to the poll, Bachmann has a favorability spread of +65 to Romney’s +41.

FYI, the last time a sitting Congressman was elected President was in the election of 1880 with James A. Garfield, who served in Congress from 1863 until until his election to the Presidency.

It’s rare for a sitting Congressman to become President. I’m not saying it’s impossible — particularly in this cycle.

This is where my History degree comes in handy. Garfield was assassinated shortly after being elected President by an mentally unstable man, whom Garfield had passed over for a diplomatic post. Garfield became the third President to be the target of what was known as “Tecumseh’s Curse.”

Here’s an interesting question: Is Michele Bachmann like Sarah Palin or Hillary Clinton?

Of course, the ideological answer is simple. She’s a traditional conservative. On social issues. On fiscal issues. On foreign policy issues. If you lined Michele Bachmann’s stated positions up next to Sarah Palin’s, you’d probably see a lot of similarities.

But what about women’s issues? Or, to put it another way, how does Michele Bachmann project her femininity (or gender) in political discourse?

Politico has the story:

Michele Bachmann gets lots of attention  for being the lone woman in the 2012 race, but she’s handling the gender issue very differently than other women who have run nationally.

She’s separating herself not just from Sarah Palin, to whom she’s most often compared, but from Hillary Clinton.

“She projects strength and feminity,” said one Democratic observer, who is not a Bachmann fan. “I think she is learning from past mistakes.”

Like Palin, Clinton often was able to turn attacks to her advantage, with an army of surrogates who took issue with her being victimized.

Clinton’s turning point moment in her 2000 Senate run came when Rick Lazio strode across a debate stage, wagging a finger at her, and demanding she sign an anti-soft money pledge. From then on, Clinton was successfully able to pivot off criticisms – her supporters rose up to defend her, often angrily.

Palin has used a similar approach, amplifying perceived attacks from critics on her Facebook page and on Twitter, with great impact.

But both women are lightning rods, and polarizing figures. And in Clinton’s case, one of her struggles in the Democratic primary against then-Sen. Barack Obama was pivoting from victimhood to portraying an aura of strength – it’s tough to sell one message, let alone two that conflict.

Bachmann is taking a more nuanced approach – other than highlighting “attacks” on her as fundraising pitches, she generally stays away from amplifying them on the stump. She pushed back against Fox News’ Chris Wallace for asking her if she was a “flake,” but she didn’t underscore any perceived gender bias in her answer.

Instead, Bachmann highlights being a woman by talking about having five kids, or, starting last week, about how a miscarriage shaped her views on abortion – references that may have more meaning for women voters, but that also don’t limit her to a single base.

And, as Alex smartly noted, she gently, subtly responded to a comment from a Tim Pawlenty backer about her “sex appeal” by turning it to her favor.

Regardless of whether we admit it or not, both sides still aren’t sure how to deal with women in politics — especially a strong-willed, outspoken woman. Culturally, we (meaning men) are not allowed to hit women, but we’re still encouraged to defend ourselves against attacks from other men (or boys on the playground, as the case may be). We’re also encouraged to defend a woman’s honor, hold the door open, etc. While feminists on the left will say women and men are equally equipped to handle the rigors of whatever life might throw their way, the truth is that’s not always the case.

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Washington Post blogger Jennifer Rubin takes a look at the changing fortunes of two Minnesota pols, who are both seeking the Presidency:

Nearly all political gurus a year or even a few months ago, if asked about the prospective campaigns of former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty and Rep. Michele Bachmann (R- Minn.), would have picked the ex-governor as the more viable of the two contenders. But politics is about performance and Pawlenty has underperformed while Bachmann, benefiting from low expectations, is the race’s overachiever.

You can see it in the polls, in the money race (although Bachmann has yet to release her second-quarter fundraising totals) and in their rhetoric…

If Pawlenty bombs in the Ames straw poll and comes in far behind Bachmann in the Iowa caucuses next year, he’s done. In fact, given his money situation, a poor Ames showing may effectively knock him out of the top tier and leave him permanently in single digits in the polls.

The punditocracy is shocked, if not aghast, that Bachmann is on the rise while that “nice” man from Minnesota, to put it mildly, has not yet caught on with the GOP electorate or donors. But then they were shocked by her debate performance and are shocked by her un-Palin-like proficiency on a variety of topics, including conservative economic theorists. (The sure sign she is becoming formidable? A fixation on her gaffes, which as of yet are a fraction of the number racked up by candidate Barack Obama.) The explanation for the contrasting fortunes of these two candidates is three-fold: instincts, ideology and independence.

Bachmann is a force to be reckoned with because she combines smarts with near-perfect political pitch for the Tea Party contingent. Without Sarah Palin’s obsession with victimology (most especially toward the press), she taps into the Tea Partyers’ anger toward the governing class. She plainly has a penchant for sharp barbs (usually directed at the president) and a keen appreciation for the conservative electorate’s mood. Most important, she saw an opening for her own candidacy when virtually no one else did. She is promising to change the party and the country; Pawlenty seems to be running on his experience and general election appeal. (Think Obama vs. Hillary Clinton in 2008.)

Rubin takes a peek at Pawlenty’s rhetoric on the campaign trail:

“Iowa has done a remarkable job in maintaining, preserving its first-in-the-nation caucus status, but we want to make sure it’s not just first, but it’s also right in selecting and predicting the nominee and the ultimate selection for president,” Pawlenty says. “I’m just trying to urge them to consider the whole process, not just the first step.”

Pawlenty, the former governor of Minnesota, spoke earlier this afternoon to about 75 people at the Surf Ballroom in Clear Lake. Pawlenty told reporters his comments were not directed at competitor Michele Bachmann, a fellow Minnesotan.

“No, it wasn’t directed at anybody in particular,” Pawlenty said. “I was just trying to make the general point that Iowa plays such a prominent role in the selection process so early, that (Iowans) can make or break campaigns.”

“No, it wasn’t directed at anybody in particular.” This statement is a continuation of the most passive aggressive campaign in history. First, Pawlenty attacks Romney with “ObamneyCare,” then he backtracks. Then he says he should have said it. Then he swipes at Bachmann and says it wasn’t directed at anyone. Lame.

Rubin concludes:

Of Bachmann, the Club for Growth writes: “With very few exceptions, Congresswoman Bachmann has supported pro-growth policies throughout her career. She especially deserves praise for her consistent defense of school choice. After reviewing her record, we are confident that Congresswoman Bachmann would be a pro-growth President.”

And finally, Bachmann can hardly be accused of being cautious, tentative or over-managed. If anything, the concern is her lack of first-rate advisers and her willingness to stir up controversy. Pawlenty is so scripted these days he’s beginning to seem like an ideal candidate — for the vice presidency. In short, she’s standing out and he’s blending into the field of contenders.

None of this is to say that Pawlenty can’t win the nomination or that Bachmann will win it. But there are good reasons why he’s in trouble and she’s now Mitt Romney’s biggest threat. She is, you know.

The Des Moines Register revealed some interesting numbers this morning:

Two-time candidate Mitt Romney and tea party upstart Michele Bachmann are neck and neck leading the pack, and retired pizza chief Herman Cain is in third place in a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll of likely participants in the state’s Republican presidential caucuses.

The results are bad news for the earnest Tim Pawlenty, a former Minnesota governor who is in single digits despite a full-throttle campaign.

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor and business executive, claims 23 percent, and Bachmann, a Minnesota congresswoman and evangelical conservative, garners 22 percent. Neither has done heavy lifting in Iowa.

The rest of the Republican field is at least 12 points behind them.

We’re only a couple months away from the Ames Straw poll, where Texas Congressman Ron Paul has shelled out a pretty penny for the prime location. This is the same spot Romney held in 2007.

While there’s still time for movement between now and the Iowa Caucuses next year, the same cannot be said between now and the Ames Straw Poll in August.

But there are a number of very interesting factors that make comparing this 2011 to 2007 difficult:

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